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Midterms 2026

Polls, markets, people, and AI — scored side by side on the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, under rules published before election day. Questions lock at 6:00 PM ET on November 3, 2026.

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Open questions

QuestionMarketPeopleCloses
Will Democrats control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?52%—Nov 3
Will Democrats control the U.S. House after the 2026 midterm elections?89%—Nov 3
Will Democrats control both the Senate and the House after the 2026 midterms?51%—Nov 3
Will Republicans hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterms?27%—Nov 3
Will Republicans hold exactly 50 Senate seats in the 120th Congress?16%—Nov 3
Will Republicans hold fewer than 190 House seats after the 2026 midterms?24%—Nov 3
Will Republicans win the national popular vote for the U.S. House in 2026?3%—Nov 3
Will Democrats win the 2026 Maine Senate race?70%—Nov 3
Will Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate race?51%—Nov 3
Will Democrats win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?65%—Nov 3
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?64%—Nov 3
Will Republicans win the 2026 Iowa Senate race?64%—Nov 3
Will Democrats win the 2026 Ohio Senate special election?55%—Nov 3
Will Democrats win the 2026 North Carolina Senate race?91%—Nov 3
Will Republicans win the 2026 Georgia Senate race?7%—Nov 3
Will Republicans win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race?16%—Nov 3
Will Dan Osborn (independent) win the 2026 Nebraska Senate race?30%—Nov 3
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California governor election?96%—Nov 3
Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin governor race?83%—Nov 3
Will Democrats win the 2026 Michigan governor race?91%—Nov 3
Will Democrats win the 2026 Georgia governor race?59%—Nov 3
Will Democrats win the 2026 Arizona governor race?88%—Nov 3
Will Democrats win the 2026 Nevada governor race?41%—Nov 3
Will Republicans win the 2026 Pennsylvania governor race?3%—Nov 3